My fall 2010 temp outlook now up

I expect a fairly indian summer type situation for most of the east and northeast with summer taking the trophy in september as well. Do not see first frost of cool shots well into october…supposed BUILDING WEAK LA NINA WE WILL SEE….this can be bad for snowlovers heading into winter if we end up with a la nina autum . here is the map:

Weather blog up and running again

Whats happening folks summer gets long down here in the lower 48 i know but soon enough we’ll have some fall weather to talk about and then some winter storms to track hopefully towards the end of the year. I am going to try to do some more interesting things with maps and long range outlooks here. Summers great but way to predictable

MAJOR SNOWSTORM ON THE WAY!!! thanks to history i am the end of a limb

Howdy folks this may be the big one……it may not but it would not take much at all for us all to get hammered right now! Here is the lastest gfs snowfall forecast which i favor over the nam currently….http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL. Reguardless whether or not the NORTHWESTERN JOG THAT I BELIEVE WILL OCCUR due to history we are going to see a substantial snowfall of 3 or 4 inches. But modelling will  not know this, i have seen this type of situations and they tend to always haunt you especially if you get rained at 33, its the infamous NW trend, it just happens. my wishcast, and seriously never underestimate the NW TREND, we’ve gotten enough 34 degree rains to realize this.

scenario 2 for dec1 storm

i STILL favor lakes cutter because of climo, and obviously it isn’t one track or the other the tracks could both be averaged but this is a track i would put in the CHANCE category for now. but we are within 6 days of making a call and it is incredible how long the gfs has had this storm on for the east. remeber the original runs had alot of ky in a bullseye but right now this is sort of what the 12z gfs showed, not exactly but the general track of what it showed the low doing could lead to a map simular to this one i made.

December 1 POSSIBLE winter storm

This is climo-favored as a lakes cutter that will bring in arctic air in its aftermath. my early thoughts, i do not see a track further northwest but also i do not see one that would bring accumulating snow to anywhere in kentucky east of owensboro/evansville areas in an extreme easterly track scenario.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Winter Forecast 2009-2010

total winter snowfall

I am not a politician so i am not going to stand up here and lie to you about my map, it is not the result of sea surface temperature studies or nao or pna it is how winter has played the last decade in kentucky. Enjoy!!  I hope its wrong but I am just going with what is due, which is confusing because…the past several winters have all had some extended bitter cold spells but very little in the way of snow for the lexington area atleast. map one is my snowfall outlook for the state of Kentucky as a whole this winter. Overall I am in a confusing spot because climatically lexington is due a big snowfall but with my outlook of a rather mild and more southern type winter i am expecting tempwise i think once again big snows will skirt alot of the area closer to areas like louisville, cincinatti and indianapolis.

Significant snow on the way…

Headline may be a bit overdone but many folks lexington points east are going to see a rather significant snowfall over the nex day or so with up to 5” possible. the nam and gfs though differing in specifics both have came around to a rather potent clipper type system that is going to deliever a 30 hour period of moderate snows that at times could become heavy. here is my mapamounts could vary very sharp cut off to western extent of snows 1 and 6 inch areas could be seperated by as little as 50 miles

thanks for reading!

Overall my blogs first big storm was a miss not a hit :( (forecastwise)

The storm that will likeyl be remebered for years to come has just exited the area and now its cold! 25 at my house and a good 10-15 mph wind, I do believe more trees are down than up lol seriously. But Overall I had this storm all wrong and i had several calls on it my last being a miss as well….Modelling definitly overdid qfp with this storm the nam was showing upwards of 3-3.25” liquid for lexington area and while we got a lot we didn’t get near that much. Officially at my rain guage i melted down 2.1” of water…had this been all snow…21” all ice 2.1” the sleet (which i didnt forecast much of at all in lex) early on is what saved us. The snow that fell todat gave us about 2.5” in less than as many hours, which i do not think i have EVER seen snow so big falls so intensley, took me by surprise bigtime! My 4-6” amounts call from yesterday were overdone as the 850s were quite late (near 10am in lex) in supporting an all snow event, Ice accumulation was at a standstill for a few hour as temps held steady near 32 degrees, at my house we never hit 33 so th ice continued to accrete. overal this storm was either equal to or greater than the 2003 verison and i say that because of the quick heavy snow that fell on top of the mess we allready had in 2003 1.2” of ice and maybe a dusting of snow but impact wise i think the storms done the same as the 2003 one, it has really just been a headache tracking this mofo had the 850s played out better (all snow) lexington would be talking tieing its record biggest snowstorm…anyway the columns did finally cool all the way near 10 in lex, i have never seen snow flakes that where so big but my o me they were huge. Now comes the cold and it will get quite cold, no particularly sunny days look to be on the horizon and temps look to remain well below freezing for a long time to come. the clear nights will be in the 8-12 range so if your out of power try to find somewhere warm. As for a storm that many are speculating about now for sunday night and monday…i am not jumping in that river until friday probably as things will change with that and i need a break and some sleep. hopefully i can hit the next storm, anyway i am 2-1 for now, pics will be up soon from my house thanks for stopping by! stay warm!

ice/sleet/rain storm today snowstorm tommorow

Hello all and thanks for stopping by this so far has been a nasty event at my house in western lex where we sit with 1/2” of freezing rain and it continues to fall…As for the 32/33 degree line seperating ice storm from near ice storm…i still think north of a e-town to richmond line is not reaching 33 today, this low developed 20 or 30 miles south of where models first projected that will be a difference maker for some. Ice accumulations in lex could reach 1.2 inches before all is said and done AND is that were not enough a snowstorm will occur for alot of the region early tommorow with plenty of snow for all check out my projection…i have very high confidence in this map as of nowkeep in mind that these totals could explode especially in the easter part of the state that is mainly dealing with rain for a part of today, i can see SOMEONE getting 8” but 4-6 will be very common for many folks, lexington will be hurt bad by this with what is likely to become a full blown ice storm 4-6 inches of snow are not going to help, the worst of this thing should get going into late this evening and the overnight, by 6am all should be snow and by noon tommorrow so if your doing the math…this snow is going to be quite heavy..again across the east someone will get a 6-8” total as the cold catches even deeper moisture

Major winter storm tonight through late wednesday

***ICE STORM AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS OUT STATEWIDE***

Hi all this scenario is a complicated on and one tough code to crack, one thing i do want to say is before storms end alot of people north of 36.5N should see at minimum 3-6” of snow on the ground even where is rains/freezing rain/sleet and mixes alot. these lines are still hard to pin down exactly as you would expect but i am going with this: blending gfs ice storm and nam blizzard….

Lexington: 4-6” by afternoon tuesday more where heavier bands develop. a change in the afternoon to moderate sleet/freezing rain with .25-.40” possible. that much ice and snow combined are deadly do not be out unless you have too. late Tuesday evening the ice and sleet will lull, later turning into heavy snow very early wednesday into wednesday morning an additional 3-5” is possible. all told lex could be shutdown for a few days if the above plays out or something like it.

Louisville: 4-6” by afternoon tuesday and local higher amounts very possible, a change to a ice or sleet or both will occur for tuesday afternoon with .25 to .5 ” of freezing rain possible and evening before going back to snow, a lull occurs and a mix breaks out with ice to snow an additional 3-5” by wednesday around noon.

Covington: Should see mainly snow with some sleet and ice but not as much as to its south, by tuesday evening 4-6” will possibly fall, the second wave will yeild amounts of 3-5 inches all told 6-12 inches of snow may fall.

Jackson: Snow early 1-2” by tue afternoon then mix to ice to mix total ice accumulations near 3/4” lull into late tuesday before second wave throws 3-6 inches on top of all of it.

London: mix to ice with .25 of ice possible before change to rain then mix to snow later tuesday, by noon wednesday 3-5” of snow is possible.