Significant snow on the way…

Headline may be a bit overdone but many folks lexington points east are going to see a rather significant snowfall over the nex day or so with up to 5” possible. the nam and gfs though differing in specifics both have came around to a rather potent clipper type system that is going to deliever a 30 hour period of moderate snows that at times could become heavy. here is my mapamounts could vary very sharp cut off to western extent of snows 1 and 6 inch areas could be seperated by as little as 50 miles

thanks for reading!

Overall my blogs first big storm was a miss not a hit :( (forecastwise)

The storm that will likeyl be remebered for years to come has just exited the area and now its cold! 25 at my house and a good 10-15 mph wind, I do believe more trees are down than up lol seriously. But Overall I had this storm all wrong and i had several calls on it my last being a miss as well….Modelling definitly overdid qfp with this storm the nam was showing upwards of 3-3.25” liquid for lexington area and while we got a lot we didn’t get near that much. Officially at my rain guage i melted down 2.1” of water…had this been all snow…21” all ice 2.1” the sleet (which i didnt forecast much of at all in lex) early on is what saved us. The snow that fell todat gave us about 2.5” in less than as many hours, which i do not think i have EVER seen snow so big falls so intensley, took me by surprise bigtime! My 4-6” amounts call from yesterday were overdone as the 850s were quite late (near 10am in lex) in supporting an all snow event, Ice accumulation was at a standstill for a few hour as temps held steady near 32 degrees, at my house we never hit 33 so th ice continued to accrete. overal this storm was either equal to or greater than the 2003 verison and i say that because of the quick heavy snow that fell on top of the mess we allready had in 2003 1.2” of ice and maybe a dusting of snow but impact wise i think the storms done the same as the 2003 one, it has really just been a headache tracking this mofo had the 850s played out better (all snow) lexington would be talking tieing its record biggest snowstorm…anyway the columns did finally cool all the way near 10 in lex, i have never seen snow flakes that where so big but my o me they were huge. Now comes the cold and it will get quite cold, no particularly sunny days look to be on the horizon and temps look to remain well below freezing for a long time to come. the clear nights will be in the 8-12 range so if your out of power try to find somewhere warm. As for a storm that many are speculating about now for sunday night and monday…i am not jumping in that river until friday probably as things will change with that and i need a break and some sleep. hopefully i can hit the next storm, anyway i am 2-1 for now, pics will be up soon from my house thanks for stopping by! stay warm!

ice/sleet/rain storm today snowstorm tommorow

Hello all and thanks for stopping by this so far has been a nasty event at my house in western lex where we sit with 1/2” of freezing rain and it continues to fall…As for the 32/33 degree line seperating ice storm from near ice storm…i still think north of a e-town to richmond line is not reaching 33 today, this low developed 20 or 30 miles south of where models first projected that will be a difference maker for some. Ice accumulations in lex could reach 1.2 inches before all is said and done AND is that were not enough a snowstorm will occur for alot of the region early tommorow with plenty of snow for all check out my projection…i have very high confidence in this map as of nowkeep in mind that these totals could explode especially in the easter part of the state that is mainly dealing with rain for a part of today, i can see SOMEONE getting 8” but 4-6 will be very common for many folks, lexington will be hurt bad by this with what is likely to become a full blown ice storm 4-6 inches of snow are not going to help, the worst of this thing should get going into late this evening and the overnight, by 6am all should be snow and by noon tommorrow so if your doing the math…this snow is going to be quite heavy..again across the east someone will get a 6-8” total as the cold catches even deeper moisture

Major winter storm tonight through late wednesday

***ICE STORM AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS OUT STATEWIDE***

Hi all this scenario is a complicated on and one tough code to crack, one thing i do want to say is before storms end alot of people north of 36.5N should see at minimum 3-6” of snow on the ground even where is rains/freezing rain/sleet and mixes alot. these lines are still hard to pin down exactly as you would expect but i am going with this: blending gfs ice storm and nam blizzard….

Lexington: 4-6” by afternoon tuesday more where heavier bands develop. a change in the afternoon to moderate sleet/freezing rain with .25-.40” possible. that much ice and snow combined are deadly do not be out unless you have too. late Tuesday evening the ice and sleet will lull, later turning into heavy snow very early wednesday into wednesday morning an additional 3-5” is possible. all told lex could be shutdown for a few days if the above plays out or something like it.

Louisville: 4-6” by afternoon tuesday and local higher amounts very possible, a change to a ice or sleet or both will occur for tuesday afternoon with .25 to .5 ” of freezing rain possible and evening before going back to snow, a lull occurs and a mix breaks out with ice to snow an additional 3-5” by wednesday around noon.

Covington: Should see mainly snow with some sleet and ice but not as much as to its south, by tuesday evening 4-6” will possibly fall, the second wave will yeild amounts of 3-5 inches all told 6-12 inches of snow may fall.

Jackson: Snow early 1-2” by tue afternoon then mix to ice to mix total ice accumulations near 3/4” lull into late tuesday before second wave throws 3-6 inches on top of all of it.

London: mix to ice with .25 of ice possible before change to rain then mix to snow later tuesday, by noon wednesday 3-5” of snow is possible.

Kentucky be prepared, MAJOR ICE AND OR SNOW STORM

Hello and thanks for stopping by on this cold Sunday! Winter storm watches are up for alot of the state as some very intense weather is going to take place. The lines AS USUAL are very fine and are going to be hard to determine here is the known

For lexington monday evening into tuesday whatever is falling will be quite intense in doing snow (if this is ice we are in trouble) At this point I’d favor lex for alot of snow over alot of ice but realisticly we could easily get a bad shot of both. Highs tuesday should stay around the upper 20s. This is a very dangerous situation developing that should not be taken lightly. I have looked at alot of models and done some combining to show you this…. AND OF COURSE the map will not go where i want it too lol!!! ok well i will try to update throughout the day latest 12z gfs for lex says blow me showing a ice storm with maybe 2-5 inches of snow, latest nam saying mainly snow, nam is usually much better than gfs inside 84 hours and seriously folks if your in lex you want snow because if its mainly ice its going to do alot of damage and likely claim much more life and property than a snowstorm, ofcourse the worst situation would be a combo of both, just pray snow!!! thats an order, i havent seen a big snow since i was 8 its about time!!

Synoptic scale winter storm *may* bullseye kentucky…

I am updating as i am headed off to camp today and into sunday morning and will be doing so without computer or internet aso you know what that means….my friends will be givin me weather weenie stuff like “tom how are you gonna check the latest models in the boonies?” in a joking way, its cool i  can pull myself away if i need to but i am going to be building a lean to shelter so hopefully that and a bonfire will keep me occupied . Onto weather (yea i bloviate bad) the latest gfs seems to really support the chances of a statewide winter blitz. Folks i am just going to say this now not very many places will likely be open mon eve into tuesday, parts of the state are in line for over a foot of snow and others will see worse, potentially an icing simular or perhaps worse than 2003…i know that all storms like that are only once every 5o years but every action is an independent variable so for it to happen again in lexington is entirely possible although i think alot of what falls in central ky will be in the form of fluff. Here is a gfs liquid map you’ve got to know this is some serious snow/ice, this is a total ky event as the worst of snow and ice will be in ky.

qfp ranges from as “little” as .5-.75 inches across the cincy area and as much as 2.5 inches across the southern counties WOW!

here is your precip type as moisture becomes entrenched across the region, i think the 6z is a tad on the warm side so that is interesting, however for the northern 1/2 of ky this is a snow/sleet event while to the south its icing and sleet. now this is just one run and is not my projected outlook because not every model is the exact same! isnt that shocking!?

 

 

 

below this is the precip type that i think will hold true for alot of the event.

 below that is a ukmet 0z 850s run, keeping alot of ky below 32 even in higher columns

 

this would spell alot of snow if used as a blend or a combo or something like that, i am an ametur and that stuff can give me headaches tryin to figure out i’d rather right a report on trees or air or poop lol. and the map ladies and gents at the very bottom is my thoughts CURRENTLY on what will take place i think i will definitly be fine tuning that again monday morning but we are drawing near and i want you to get an idea of my though pattern.

*Potential* Major Winter Storm Monday Evening

Hello and thanks for stopping by! By now we all know that the potential for one of the old school type storms that ride east to west across I-40 look to be taking shape BUT there are still very many questions about what is going to fall where. Let me start out saying that we are 72 hours away from the events start and models will change but at this time most folks north of the TN border are in for a HUMDINGER of snow/sleet/icing event! Monday night into Tuesday qfp will be abundant while cold arctic high pressure keeps the area in the upper 20s. The question is who gets the mix, who gets ice and who gets all snow? That is near impossible to say at this point but here is my thinking: i’ll tyr to update later today with the 0z runs

 

 

 

 

Cold Pattern with winter weather chances

Hello to everyone and thanks for stopping by on this snowy and cold tuesday evening! The next several days are going to be well below normal overall and there is the chance for more snow, only the southern jet will be where the chances will srping from. Speaking of chances I will come right out and say this even though we are five days out, i think the odds of anyone in ky seeing a major snowstorm are quite low….here is why: 1 no matter how cold this winter has been we have seen it get mild fast in time for rain as the main precip moves in. 2. we are in the magic five days out range where everything looks amazing qfp is abundant and the freeze line is lower than a midgit hooker under a dick (sorry had to throw that in there) but we have all been here before and i am not being fooled by ayone model run consistency or not, if we are 48 hours or closer my attention will be more towards it… i did mention a few posts ago for us to get a big snow ideally a low would enter through central or southern california…well that looks to be possible with this as we may cacth the north edge, that however does not translate into snow in ky, at this point i am keeping the wording for either rain or ice, snow on the backside but nothing major, i think i will applaud myself come friday and we all realize a rain or ice storm is all we are going to get or worse a mix of everything, but not a snowstorm. 18z gfs shows a major icing event to our immediate northwest from cape g. , mo to cincinatti, ohio, the big snows are well to the northwest WITH THIS RUN. I’d put money on a mix to mainly chilly rain scenario at this point but that’s just my 2cents. try to catch some nice weather this friday as highs may top near 50 in areas that get rain later, overall i see only two real possibilities from the storm early next week here they are:

Light snow on the way

1-4 inches east of i65. 1” the further west  and the further southeast the closer to 4”. As i look at the radar right now i am inclined to say lexington may indeed get a solid 2” out of this event. This event is different from the last few in that it has some organization to it and isn’t so scattered, most of everyone is going to see accumulating snowfall from this, many will see 2-3” along and esp east of 75. Cold is going to follow in really nice this week with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s and lows 14-20 . Thursday may see a temp spike into the mid 40s before another front moves through, overall the pattern stays in a normal january cold type pattern with very brief warmups, snow continues to fall nicely here, my map isnt too detailed but here is a looksee, thanks for stopping by!

WINTER BLUES

Sorry for being away for a few days, I have been sorting school things out with the new semester starting and as usual its a slap in the face, speaking of which that is what has occured over the area weather wise the past week. It’s been cold, below 0 in many cases, and no snow .  As far as snow chances go tonights snow seems quite unimpressive, the models can’t fool me on this one, it shouldn’t amount to much other than some flakes in the air, but some isolated folks are game for an inch, still not anything major and at this point we’d like more than an inch. As for temps should remain cold for the upcoming week with some snow shower chances, thanks for reading hopefully one clipper will trakc far enough south to produce some accumulation, as of now i am not expecting that.